Q3 2025 Fund Commentary

Market commentary

Global equities gained over the third quarter of 2025 and outperformed global bonds, which posted a small gain (all returns in Canadian-dollar terms on a total return basis). Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) would lower interest rates and ongoing investment and development in artificial intelligence (AI) helped boost stocks over the quarter.

The U.S. equity market advanced, posting a double-digit return. Information technology was the strongest-performing sector. Canadian equities increased and outperformed U.S. equities, getting a strong performance from the materials sector. EAFE equities advanced, underperforming Canadian and U.S. equities.

Equities in Japan and the U.K. contributed to the performance of EAFE equities. Emerging markets equities also advanced and outperformed their developed market peers, with equities in China and Taiwan contributing to performance.

The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posted a total return of 1.5% over the quarter. As government yields moved lower, government bond prices increased. Government bonds underperformed corporate bonds, which also posted a gain.

Corporate bond prices benefited from narrowing credit spreads (the difference in yield between corporate and government bonds). Real estate bonds posted the largest increase in the corporate sector. High-yield bond prices rose on a total return basis and outperformed investment-grade corporate bonds.

Global bond yields remained largely unchanged over the quarter, and global bond prices posted a small gain. The Bank of Canada, the Fed and the Bank of England lowered their policy interest rates. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan held their policy interest rates steady. The yield on 10-year Government of Canada bonds fell from 3.27% to 3.18%. Government yields in the U.S. also declined. Government bond yields in the U.K., Germany and Japan increased.

Performance

An off-benchmark allocation to Canadian Tactical Bond contributed to performance as it was favourably positioned relative to its benchmark. Allocations to Foreign Bond and Private Credit also contributed.

Portfolio activity

The sub-advisor did not make any changes to the Portfolio during the quarter.

Outlook

In the sub-advisor’s view, the third quarter of 2025 highlighted divergence in global growth. The U.S. economy was resilient with gross domestic product growth near 3% annualized and productivity gains driven by AI adoption offsetting softer labour market trends. In contrast, Canada, Europe and the U.K. were weighed down by rising unemployment and trade challenges.

In the sub-advisor’s view, equity markets reflect investor optimism, particularly in the U.S., where AI-driven earnings drove elevated valuations. Market concentration in technology and swings in investor sentiment are causes for caution.

Within fixed income, we view alternatives such as private credit and mortgages as valuable sources of income and duration management, particularly in a higher-for-longer environment. Liquidity and flexibility remain central, allowing portfolios to absorb sudden shocks if risks around AI investment, funding markets, or fiscal policy materialize.

The sub-advisor’s approach emphasizes resilience over precision. Core U.S. equity exposure remains important, but we balance this with global diversification and multi-factor strategies that reduce dependence on narrow leadership.